Dave Evans: Kurzweil predicts nanobots in our bodies by the 2030's. Far-fetched or realistic?

I interviewed Dave Evans, Chief Futurist, Cisco, 1990-2014 and Co-Founder/CTO of Stringify. The interview was performed February 15, 2017 in Silicon Valley. Dave is one of world’s top experts on the Internet-of-Things and on technology trends.

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  1. I've been following Kurzweil for over 15 years now.

    Back in the day when I first started reading him, I had thought we'd have a nanotech revolution in the mid teens.

    Turns out we're having an AI revolution instead. And I must say that I like that 10x better. Because AI can help build nanotech. The other way around… not so much.

    I follow the Futurology subreddit daily and I hardly ever see any nanotech advances being posted. I currently do not see a path to nanobots by 2030. Not through purely human driven effort, that is.

    However…

    AI is moving so obscenely fast. And us stoopid hoomans never seem to learn just how powerful exponential acceleration really is.

    I am not excluding the idea that by 2030, AI will be so ridiculously smart that it can figure out advanced nanotechnology in a matter of days.

    Especially in combination with quantum computers. I hear they are very suitable for simulating materials. Seems to me like that would be a boon to nanotech.

    http://www.sciencealert.com/google-s-quantum-computer-is-helping-us-understand-quantum-physics

  2. The most dramatic changes occurred from 1800s to 1900s. Think about that electricity, telecommunication, cars, steam powered train and ships. Antibiotics, birth control, etc. New vaccines. I however am not seeing that type of innovation today – we may be going backwards, heart disease is the worlds greatest killer mainly because of diet. The internet is just a means of communication. Which we had with telecommunication. All new meds are very expensive treatments. So while I would luv if we saw dramatic changes in the 21st century, like was seen in the 20th but I don't think so. We need to focus on prevention, get out diets under control, infection under control and all will be good. But believing we will have nanobots and the like is not going to happen, I don't think.

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